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How Do Interest Rates Affect the Jobs Market and Public Sector Hiring?

How Do Interest Rates Affect the Jobs Market and Public Sector Hiring?

Interest rate changes do more than affect mortgages and household spending. They can also influence business investment, workforce demand, candidate movement and the way organisations approach recruitment.

Following the Reserve Bank of Australia’s decision on 29 September 2026 to increase the cash rate by 0.25 percentage points to 4.60%, employers are again considering what changing economic conditions could mean for workforce planning.

For Public Sector organisations, the relationship is more nuanced.

Government departments, councils and other public organisations continue to require people to deliver essential services, infrastructure, regulatory functions and major programs regardless of movements in interest rates.

However, interest rate changes can influence the broader talent market around them.

How do interest rates affect employment and hiring?

Interest rates influence how much households and businesses spend, borrow and invest.

When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more expensive and economic activity can moderate over time. When rates fall, lower borrowing costs can encourage investment and spending.

Those changes can eventually influence:

  • business investment

  • project activity

  • workforce demand

  • candidate confidence

  • salary expectations

  • movement between industries

  • demand for specialist skills

The impact is rarely immediate.

A change to the cash rate today does not instantly change the jobs market. The effects tend to flow progressively through investment decisions, consumer behaviour, project pipelines and workforce planning.

What do higher interest rates mean for the Public Sector?

Public Sector recruitment does not necessarily move in the same way as private sector hiring.

Councils and government organisations still require capability across areas such as finance, infrastructure, technology, governance, planning, procurement and service delivery.

However, changes in the wider economy can create new considerations and opportunities for Public Sector employers.

1. Candidate markets can change

Changes in private sector investment and project activity can influence where candidates are working and how open they are to new opportunities.

This can potentially broaden the talent pool available to Public Sector organisations, particularly in areas where government competes directly with private industry.

These may include:

  • project and program delivery

  • engineering and infrastructure

  • property and development

  • technology and digital

  • finance and commercial

  • procurement

  • governance, risk and compliance

For organisations hiring into these areas, understanding where talent is moving can be particularly valuable.

2. Workforce planning becomes even more valuable

Economic change is a good opportunity for organisations to review what capability they actually need.

Rather than simply replacing a departing employee with the same position, employers can consider:

Which skills will we need over the next 12 to 24 months?

Can we develop someone internally?

Where do we genuinely need external expertise?

Has the role changed since we last recruited it?

Is the remuneration still aligned with the market?

This can lead to more deliberate recruitment decisions and stronger workforce planning.

3. Salary benchmarking remains important

Interest rate changes don't mean candidate salary expectations simply disappear.

ABS data shows Public Sector wages increased 3.4% over the year to the June quarter 2026, compared with 3.1% in the private sector. Public Sector annual wage growth has now exceeded private sector growth for six consecutive quarters.

For employers, that makes current remuneration benchmarking important.

A salary range established 12 or 18 months ago may not accurately reflect today's candidate market.

Where there is limited flexibility around remuneration, organisations may also need to strengthen other parts of their employee proposition, including:

  • flexible working arrangements

  • career development

  • internal mobility

  • leadership opportunities

  • meaningful work

  • organisational purpose

  • learning and development

4. Public Sector hiring activity remains significant

Despite changing economic conditions, Australia's labour market remains active.

Jobs and Skills Australia recorded 212,400 online job advertisements in August 2026, around 25% above the monthly average recorded in 2019.

ABS data also recorded approximately 21,200 vacancies across Public Administration and Safety in May 2026.

For Public Sector organisations, this highlights the importance of continuing to take a proactive approach to attracting specialist and leadership talent.

5. More available candidates doesn't necessarily mean the right candidates

Australia's unemployment rate was 4.6% in August 2026, while employment increased by approximately 39,500 people during the month.

But headline employment figures don't necessarily tell an organisation how difficult a particular appointment will be.

A broader candidate market doesn't automatically create more:

  • experienced Project Directors

  • specialist engineers

  • senior finance professionals

  • experienced Local Government executives

  • technology leaders

  • procurement specialists

  • governance professionals

Candidate availability can vary significantly by occupation, location, seniority and sector experience.

For employers, the more useful question is:

What does the market look like for the specific person we're trying to hire?

How can interest rate changes create hiring opportunities?

Economic change can create opportunities as well as challenges.

As different industries adjust their investment and workforce priorities, candidates may become more open to opportunities they previously would not have considered.

For Public Sector organisations, this can create an opportunity to engage talent from adjacent industries.

Someone does not always need to have spent their entire career in government to bring valuable capability into the Public Sector.

Depending on the role, experience from property, construction, professional services, technology, finance or other industries may be highly transferable.

A proactive search strategy can help identify these candidates before they begin actively applying for jobs.

What should Public Sector employers consider before hiring?

Before commencing a recruitment process, it is worth reviewing:

  • current salary benchmarks

  • candidate availability

  • transferable private sector talent

  • internal succession opportunities

  • future capability requirements

  • the organisation's employee value proposition

  • flexibility and career development opportunities

  • the length of the recruitment process

  • whether advertising alone will reach the right people

The objective should not simply be to fill an immediate vacancy.

It should be to understand where the talent market is heading and position the organisation accordingly.

Frequently Asked Questions

Do higher interest rates mean fewer jobs?

Not necessarily. Higher interest rates can reduce spending and investment over time, which can affect workforce demand in some industries. However, the effect varies significantly between sectors, occupations and regions.

Public Sector workforce requirements are also influenced by government programs, essential service delivery, infrastructure, regulation and long term workforce planning.

Do interest rates affect Public Sector recruitment?

They can affect it indirectly.

Interest rate changes can influence the broader economy, private sector hiring, candidate movement, salary expectations and the availability of transferable talent.

Public Sector organisations may therefore see changes in the candidate market even when their own workforce requirements remain relatively stable.

Is it a good time for Public Sector organisations to hire?

The better question is whether the market is favourable for the specific capability an organisation needs.

Different occupations can behave very differently within the same economic environment.

Market mapping, salary benchmarking and candidate research can help organisations understand the available talent pool before commencing a recruitment process.

Can Public Sector employers attract candidates from the private sector?

Yes.

Many skills across project delivery, engineering, property, technology, finance, procurement and commercial functions can transfer between private and Public Sector environments.

The key is understanding which capabilities are genuinely transferable and positioning the opportunity effectively.

The bottom line

Interest rates can influence Australia's jobs market, but the relationship is more complicated than simply assuming that higher rates mean less hiring.

For Public Sector organisations, essential services, major programs, infrastructure projects and long term workforce requirements continue to create demand for capable people.

What can change is the talent market surrounding those organisations.

Candidate availability, salary expectations, private sector competition and people's willingness to consider new opportunities can all evolve as economic conditions change.

At W&Co Search, we help Public Sector organisations understand those changes before they go to market.

Through salary benchmarking, candidate mapping, proactive search and market intelligence, we can help organisations understand where the talent is, what candidates are looking for and how best to approach an upcoming appointment.

If you're planning a specialist, executive or broader Public Sector hire, speak with the W&Co Search team about what we're currently seeing in the market.

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W&Co Search acknowledges the traditional owners of the lands on which we are proud to work – the Bunurong Boon Wurrung and Wurundjeri Woi Wurrung peoples of the Eastern Kulin Nation. We pay our respects to their Elders past, present and emerging.